10 Reasons Why I think Harris Will Win "Bigly"
What the pollsters don't seem to understand about this race
Ever look out your window at a drenching rainstorm after you just heard "chance of precipitation near zero?" Political polling is, if anything, even less exact than meteorology. I think (and HOPE) people are going to be very surprised to wake up on November 6 and see an enormous victory for Harris and Walz.
Why am I so optimistic? Here are 10 of the many reasons:
Every time reproductive rights has been on the ballot since Rowe v. Wade, it not only generates big turnout, it has won and has brought out Democratic voters—even in places like Kansas. 10 states are voting on reproductive rights this year, including normally Red-voting Florida, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Missouri and swing state Arizona. Flipping those states Blue would make a Trump victory very difficult. A related factor: Many people correctly see Trump as an existential threat to our democracy, and those people are going to vote to protect us.
Usual Red states that have elected Democrats in recent statewide elections (e.g., Governor, US Senator, Wisconsin Supreme Court Judge) include North Carolina, Georgia, Montana, and Kentucky. Not to mention several swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
Even before Kamala Harris took over the top of the ticket, new voters were registering in huge numbers. Since Biden ended his candidacy, the surge has been far greater. And Harris's ability to sew up the nomination and get endorsements not only from potential competitors but pretty much the entire Democratic Party establishment as well as a vast array of grassroots groups in 48 hours is nothing short of miraculous.
The excitement and enthusiasm also manifests in private donations on a scale never seen before, massive rallies long after the July "honeymoon", and influential celebrity endorsements like Taylor Swift and Bruce Springsteen—not to mention a gazillion interest-group caucuses fundraising and organizing under titles like Elders for Kamala (ranging from Bill McKibben to Jane Fonda), Labor for Harris, Disabled Voters for Harris, and so many others
Harris has gained the support of vast constituencies who were insulted and belittled by Trump and Vance: women, labor, LGBT, people of color, military veterans, youth, environment and climate change activists, even sane Republicans from George Will to Liz Cheney and her former Vice President father.
While activists to the left of Harris (including me) recognize that she is not our ideal candidate—she has a lot of growing to do on Middle East policy, immigration justice, and climate/energy, to name three among many—we also recognize that ranked-choice voting doesn't exist, that on every issue she is orders of magnitude better than her opponent, and that we can pressure her from the left. Not only can we not meaningfully pressure Trump to change his incredibly bad policies (though we can file lawsuits that will undo at least a little of the harm), we will face serious repression. It's hard to fight for justice from prison or exile.
Project 2025, the blueprint for a fascist takeover of the US government, is scaring a lot of people into voting to protect democracy. And despite his denials, Trump's fingerprints are all over Project 2025. What I don't understand is why they actually published it before the election. I'm happy for their huge strategic mistake, but puzzled. Did they actually think this would help get Trump elected? Meanwhile, the electorate overwhelmingly favors much more liberal policies on issue after issue. Whether it's reproductive rights, sensible gun laws, or even world trade—and that trade link is from the conservative Cato Institute—Trump, Vance, and the MAGA Republicans are wildly out of step with the public.
Not only have Trump and Vance made no attempt to court independent voters or even moderate Republicans, they seem to be working hard to alienate them. They are only courting the MAGA base, and that won't be enough to get them into office.
Trump's noticeable cognitive decline and both his and Vance's consistent use of fantasy instead of fact are scaring people.
As a country, we are tired of Trump's constant lying, bullying, name-calling, criminal self-dealing, criminal fraud, actions that a courtroom considered the equivalent of rape, coup attempts, horrendous policies, coddling of dictators while bashing allies, and all the rest of Trump's chaos. It is clear that he didn't have the skills or the temperament to run the country during his term, and he's even less suited to this very tough job now.
Harris will undoubtedly win the popular vote, probably by several million. But the Electoral College vote is the one that really counts, and that could be a lot closer. Thus, if you want to see a sane, compassionate president rather than a lying, bullying, incompetent 34-count convicted felon and failed businessman with numerous bankruptcies in the White House, please vote—and please volunteer and/or donate. Every vote will make a difference in getting those vote totals not just past victory, but with such a margin that no one will take seriously Trump's inevitable claims of fraud. DO NOT leave this for someone else! Participate in the most important election in your lifetime, and maybe in the nation's history.
Boy do I hope you are right!